tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 4, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
i am mark barton. this is "bloomberg markets" on bloomberg television. betty: let's kick it out stick to the markets. julie hyman has the latest on more economic numbers. julie: it has been a busy morning. the i.s. service report coming out at 55.7. that is higher than what was estimated. services is the largest part of the u.s. the economy. factories up 1.1%. a little a revision bit lower in the prior month in february of 1.9 percent decline. i am looking at durable goods orders with a gain of .801%, in line with estimates and transportation falling .2 of 1%, which is worse than had been themated, but it looks like
numbers are coming out better than analysts had anticipated. the other big economic report of the morning has been next. adp employment report showing a smaller than estimated gain in employment. perhaps the precursor to friday's report but there is not always correlation between the two. productivity falling 1%, even as the unit labor cost rose by 3.1%, so there has been a lot to digest this morning for investors. overall, we are still seeing this concern over global growth with a scenario coming back into play in the markets. that said, all averages are already up off of the early those with the session cutting the lost that we have seen just about in half. all three major averages. if you take a look at the bond can see the economic data and that is what we see for
the s&p 500 this morning. if you take a look at what is going on with the bond market this morning at what we have ,een seeing in the 10 year note i guess we do not have it, so we will be watching that to see what is going on across the board with the various economic data points. oil has been spiking this morning ahead of the inventory report that we will be getting at 10:30. the 39you mentioned companies reporting the s&p 500 earnings, so it does kind of like, should i stay or go? we are not sure. a statehere is sort of and go at all kind of companies. travel and real estate companies reporting. that is part of the theme, so priceline coming up with earnings that fall short of analyst estimates for projections for next quarter. they say this because of the timing of the easter holiday. also, talking about some of the global weakness with priceline getting about .75 of the revenue
abroad and those shares are down sharply. avis predicting revenue rising at more than three point 5% estimates and turning around earlier losses. zillow coming out with second-quarter revenue with forecasts at the midpoint of that beating estimates, so those shares are searching. lending tree has been bouncing around all over the place. the company was higher earlier after the forecast the estimates, but not the stock has turned lower. for: stocks in europe down the fourth consecutive day, the worst four-day run since early .ebruary in that period stoxx 600 has fallen by 4.6 percent and every single industry group has fallen. today a big day for earnings. europe's guest oil producer, shell, beating analyst estimates. better than expected for oil refining and chemical production countering crude prices.
shell is buying bg group to help withse out of the downturn the oil price and it promised accelerated savings from the takeover, as well as $30 billion in asset sales. these are the big oil majors across the globe in 2016. shell, chevron and the sun mobile have been fighting it out in the recent days. -- and exxon mobil have been fighting it out in the recent days. they are all roughly up by 13% with a total of 2.7% higher, beating by 4%, so shell is not doing so badly. europe's biggest airline reporting a loss. it narrowed and fuel cost falling and restructuring measures beginning to bring down. --did caution that bogus that industry overcapacity is way not ticket price and it is a highly uncertain travel market. the white line shows the valuation of air france trading
on estimated earnings roughly below three times. howblue line is a stoxx 600 you wish in trading on 15 times estimated earnings. what is interesting is air france is the only airline in europe to rise and it is the cheaper on found you -- the cheapest on violation terms. francis second-biggest bank reported an unexpected increase in third-quarter profits, boosted by consumer banking. shares up by 3.5%. be watching that. let's get to bloomberg's first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: the republican is almostal nominee certainly donald trump. the head of the rnc is calling trump the presumptive nominee after a big victory in the indiana primary. ted cruz exited the race. the victory is cleared for donald trump to win the nomination.
bernie sanders surprised hillary clinton by winning 53% of the vote in indiana, but clinton has an insurmountable lead in delegates and superdelegates. president obama is getting a firsthand look today at flint, they're, today and tainted water supply. the president will speak to 1000 residents at the high school. they issued a statement emergency in flint four months ago because of widespread contamination in their water. the european commissions is return for a flow of refugees. they're paving the way protects to have the separate travels to europe. that is one of the recommendations they are making to eurozone countries. it has led to a big drop in refugee of arrival. their linesading with israel. they will now have a headquarters in brussels.
military argued taken operations with the organization. the deal with nato may help prime minister netanyahu deflect talk that [indiscernible] that the two-game series in puerto rico will not be held there because of concerns about the zika virus. that is according to "the associated press." marlins players attended a seminar on zika that heightened concerns about playing the games and an announcement is expected by the end of the week. news 24 hours a day powered by our journalists and bureaus around the world. betty: thank you. back with politics. in the victory speech last night, donald trump addressed one of his biggest hurdles. mending a deeply fractured party and the main challenge of the republican nomination.
donald trump: i did not expect this. thinged tape is a brave to do and a great thing because we want to bring unity to the republican party. we have to to bring unity. it is so much easier if we have it. [applause] betty: can trump really claim the mantle of republican unifier? joining us now is marty schenker, senior executive editor for government economics in washington. you pointed out to me earlier that when you joined us back in february, when things were kicking off with the iowa caucus, you said it is hard not to see trump not be the nominee and here we are several months later and it looks like he is. i would ratherl, be lucky than good, but i -- betty: or both. marty: yes, both are good things, but clearly, trump is
going to be the nominee of the republican party. now comes the hard part. betty: the hard part is unifying the party. outrnc chairman tweeted donaldter the results -- trump is going to be presumptive gop nominee. we all need to unite and focus on beating hillary clinton. #never clinton. how significant is it that he tweeted that? he is obviously someone who needs to bring the party together and they will only be one nominee and donald trump is it. there are procedural things that in super pac proclamation. one of those, an interesting thing, is that he will have to turn the whole convention process over to trump's people at some point. by this time last election, mitt romney's people were in charge of convention planning and we
will be watching to see when that takes place. mark: how is trump going to win this election? he says he is going to go off to clinton, but two thirds of americans hold a negative view of him. how can he beat clinton that comes to clinton -- if it comes to clinton and she gains the democratic nomination? marty: the disapproval rating for hillary clinton is not all that much better than donald trump, so i think the disapproval rating issue is kind of overblown because liquid he did in indiana with those kinds of disapproval is. he won by a vast majority, so i think as a race moves on, it will get a lot closer. towill definitely need improve his standing among women. if he continues to have a 75 percent negative rating among women, it is difficult to see a
path for him to win the election . at the same time, i think this race in november is going to be close. mark: listen to this soundbite from the former mexican president been sent a box -- vicente fox. x: we better watch out for word, especially the american people. they need to wake up. he is proposing ideas that will not work. on the contrary, instead of serving jobs, they will lose jobs. can trump or will trump tone back his views in building this wall, separated the u.s. and mexico? so we have to tone back some of his outlandish suggestions -- will we have to tone back some of his outlandish suggestions? marty: he was asked that this morning and he said, no, he will
not change his views at all. i do think that represents an issue among the national security establishment and the gop people like colin powell, have very serious concerns about him as commander-in-chief. it will be interesting to see in the next weeks just how many of the gop elites actually back donald trump or might in fact back hillary clinton. betty: trump versus clinton. looks like that is what we are looking at. marty shanker, thank you so much. much more ahead. is old climbing too far into fast? falling for a third day and gains have been extensive. we will talk to jim ricker's about the case for holding the yellow. ♪
live from london and new york. i am mark barton. betty: i am betty liu. time for the bloomberg business flash. u.s. addedn the fewer workers than expected. newer porch of a dp say private payrolls grew by about 150 6000 in april and the federal government comes out with their monthly jobs report on friday. prosecutors in brazil filed a billitongainst bhp over the dam rupture that killed as many as 19 people. he challenges of previous deal they had signed with federal and state government. probably result in the
lower settlement. in poland, the five-month-old government is boosting business credentials. 574a promised to spend million dollars to build a mercedes-benz engine factory in the country. bloomberg is the splash. this morning, we are tracking what is going on with the dollar. bloomberg's gauge of the dollar is common from their lowest level in one year after san francisco fed president said he would support raising rates next month, provided the economy stays on track. want is a likelihood because we are never supposed to talk about what will happen and we look at live data between now and then, in my view, yes, it would be appropriate given all of the things we talked about to go in that next step, but a lot can happen between now and the middle of june. is pushing back against market expectations on rate hikes.
joining us is jim wreckers, editor and author of "the new case for gold." goldys the recent rally in is not a gold story but the dollar store. great to see you again. it is a dollar story how? james: they made the dollar price for gold is up and down, so it was about $1900. every though from the dollar, look at the fed dollar index. it is no coincidence that the dollar goes high when the dollar is low, so the question of gold is do think the dollar is going up and you don't typically one gold and if you think the dollar is going down, he went gold. betty: people do not buy gold because they are making a better dollar. they are making a bet -- james: gold is up 22% this year but it is up more for currencies
because those currencies are down. more thanally up others. not inold as money and terms of dollars but weight. the dollar price could be a lot higher, so you do have to look at it in terms of the currency if you are an investor. mark: how closely do you look at open interest? we have a chart here that shows open interest in gold and futures that have risen to the highest level in five years. are shows that traders expecting further increases. is that your way of looking at it? james: i think it is important data that i don't exactly describe. to me, it is the ratio of paper gold to physical gold because those futures are sent
unallocated forward and market association. that is supported by a diminishing supply of physical gold. the world's largest gold refineries said they are having trouble finding gold and making it more. and they are selling 10 times the weight to china and they are having a problem sourcing it. i see more and more paper gold supported by less and less physical gold supply and that will tip at some point. you will the mother of all short squeezes. mark: talk me through this shanghai accord and why it is the apex of your investment thesis right now. james: this is the sideline of the g-20 summit in february in shanghai. china needs help. china is slowing down and the u.s. is slowing down, so you need to cheapen the chinese currency. in august 2015 and 2015 in early
2016, it was dangerously close to global panic, so how do you get without [indiscernible] the answer is to make the dollar in the u.s. cheaper and stronger currencies in china. the europe, u.s., japan, all would like to see that because of inflation, but you cannot have that. other countries have to get stronger. i see the yen going to 100, the the going to $1.20 and china-u.s. cable kind of the unchanged. it china devalued, it would be against the euro and yen, so you look at the body language of christine lagarde at the spring meeting just couple days ago, they're threatening and saying, do not you there do that and the
yen has to get stronger. it is their turn for the currency. betty: i went to get back -- there, there is the case but as you mentioned earlier, we are way off of our highs and gold. james: down about 20%. betty: if you were to own gold, he would have lost a lot of honey. james: it is important for investors. is the best-performing asset of the 21st century. it outperforms every stock and bond index. 2015, if you011 to want to take that, it fell 45%. that it was below for the dollar and this goes back to the currency wars. the dollar did not have to get toonger, but if you went
give japan and europe relief, which they did in 2012 and in june 2014, if you want to do that, you have to have a stronger dollar. the dollar has to get stronger and that took down the dollar price of gold. now we are getting a weaker dollar, stronger euro and yen, so now a stronger dollar is on gold. betty: at that time, everyone thought inflation was going to be rearing its head. james: inflation is another way to measure a cheap dollar. betty: good to see you. james rickards. mark: still ahead, we are , cbs,ng time warner cable and more on how their shares are reacting, coming up. ♪
big media earnings that have come out. topping the list, as well as time warner. i am reporting similar things. cbs coming out with first-quarter earnings beating analyst estimates, in part because of the super bowl and grammys. sales rising by 10% and ad sales of broadcast networks at 49% with affiliates up 2%. you back out the super bowl, they still sought sales, soin the ad those shares gaining. time warner also trying to rely on sports, at least in part to boost numbers. first-quarter earnings far above analyst estimates. the company also getting more affiliates, much like cbs and a 5% increase in advertising and revenue as well with a rise high distributors like at&t and comcast with those shares up in the same neighborhood around the percent. related to media also, we have live nation out with numbers
today. let's start with msg networks, owner from the spin off of madison square garden with arias tv networks, revenue their beating estimates and earnings rising by 16%. ad revenue were helping the we will end with live nation quickly and that company coming out ahead of estimates. media stocks rising by about the same percent today. mark: thank you. we will have much, much more next hour. cbs chief executive les moonves will be on bloomberg, coming up at 11:00 a.m. eastern. 4:00 p.m. in london. betty: and we will have oil inventories. we will be back. ♪
trading with oil inventory numbers. we are again in the red and bigng off the lowest the earnings day. we are looking at the second day of losses. interestingly enough, it looks like the s&p 500, if we continue with the clients, we are going to be raising the entire game for 2016. julie hyman at the market desk julie: more on oil numbers. update build -- more on oil numbers. julie: eight they build on oil numbers. our survey was for 560 6000 barrels and bloomberg users survey was only looking for a build of four point 2 million barrels, so this is more than doubled that estimate that we saw. we are looking at gasoline inventories which were forcing to have a drop but they have the game up 500 36,000 barrels. they did see a drawdown of 1.3 million barrels with an uptick atu.s. refinery utilization
1.6% and we will be looking at the production numbers as we continue to digest what all of this shows. oil there on your screen. i want to look at it on the bloomberg because it is more of an updated number. excuse me, we are seeing a little bit of a leg downward in oil last get these numbers coming out. as we frequently talk about, it takes a little while to digest numbers but coming up highs sharply and showing the reign of about 1.5%. oil has been on a pretty steady uptick since the lows of the year have seen a big recovery that we have been watching. that helps contribute to some of the gains we have seen an energy stock. it has been a rough go as we start to get earnings numbers from companies. i will continue to look at these numbers, particularly the production part, but that built of 8.2 million of barrels of crude oil definitely a surprise versus the estimate. betty: we are seeing this
decline in oil. see why so much. let's get to first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: britain's government valley to take -- valley to take unaccompanied syrian children. david cameron says children who registered in greece, italy or france before march 20 will be eligible to come to the u.k. no word on how many children they will accept. the new york european union agreement on refugees is having a major impact with greece looking to take and 3500 last month and that is an 87% drop from march. they reached a deal with turkey. donald trump says he plans to accept more contributions now that is the likely republican nominee. he tells abc that he will probably take full donations up to legal contribution limits. he says a have already spent about $44 million of his money.
that hockeyhance players will not be taking part of the olympics in south korea. they say that it is a 60% likelihood that the national hockey league will not produce up eight due to a lack of money to cover player insurance and travel. is powerball jackpot creeping higher. be worthtrong will $348 million. it is a far cry from the powerball in january, the largest jackpot ever. powerball says the odds of winning are one in more than 292 million. global news 24 hours a day powered by our journalists and news bureaus around the world. thank you. we finally found something that is less likely than like esther winning the championship that -- then the caster winning the
championship in america. betty: it is on the record. julie: i will give you 391. a little peek at what is happening to european equities. about 57he story with minutes left in today's session. it is the same as it is in the united states. down for a fourth consecutive day. every industry falling. it is all about earnings. we have had a wide array of earnings from oil companies, airlines, banks, miners, and that is one of the reasons you see a lot of those industry groups lower. down by 2% and also down by 1.5% with banks lower, energy companies lower, and in the current market today, monday was the highlight for sterling against the dollar. the highest since january on monday. fallen for a couple of days since. the euro is up against the
dollar today and monday, it hit the highest levels. bond market with guilds unchanged, the yield at one point 53% with slowing ,onstruction gains today coupled with the contraction of the manufacturing industry. that makes it interesting for the bank of england, which announces its quarterly report next week. let's get to the matters of the u.s. nature with abigail doolittle at the nasdaq. what have you got? trading downnasdaq slightly, down out of nine of the last 10 days, so stay tuned to how it closes. seller shares are soaring. the are up sharply after they did the first quarter revenue estimate i 5% and raised second-quarter estimate by about 5% as well. the ceo says they expected yearh to accelerate this
and this quarter demonstrates this as the first quarter did see a record number of users. interestingly, the streets neutral on siloam and there is a high bearish short interest up 21%. this could suggest that today's gap is up and out of a long-term trading range and it could be perhaps unsustainable. mark: any other notable movers on the back of earnings today? abigail: priceline shares plunging. it is the biggest drag on the nasdaq after they offered a low consensus view on the second quarter. say a fewanalyst factors contributed, including a week at macro environment, increasing cancellations, plus, an early easter. a softer sees such travel susan or demand for the second quarter than expedia. priceline did say that the second quarter is not indicative of long-term growth, but on today's plunge, shares our bearish lay back below the moving average with shares of priceline caught in a long-term
trading range of uncertainty. mark: abigail doolittle live at the nasdaq. betty: slower economic growth is projected for the downside and that means now is the time to move into safer assets. as you get risky, load up on protection. we are with janice capitals -- .anus capital myron scholes myron: i was a little worried for a while about what we believe the smart money was saying, but what it was really saying was that the possibilities of inflation are much greater these days than previously. basically, the economic growth is going to be down. notcally, being in bonds is going to be helping you as much as in the past.
in the past, we have always had bonds negatively correlated with equity. today, it seems that correlation is more volatile. >> so your model suggests something of stagnation? myron: that is correct. >> what kind of investor do you want to be? obviously, inflation protection assets are good read in shorter terms, on assets are good. it is equity assets that could mark to inflation. erik: give me some examples. what kinds of things? our talking about cold, for example -- gold, for example? yron: gold, agricultural commodities, other types of basic commodities. actually is a lot of
interesting currents that are going on in the market. technology, the thatls tended to suggest we were having more equity down time that we had previously with the risk of equities more to the downside. erik: this is looking forward or backward? myron: forward. tok: so we are going experience more of what we experienced in december, january, and last august as well? myron: we had recovery. erik: toward the end of february, it picked up. myron: yes. this characterize for me -- is it a correction, more than a correction? what does the model say will happen? a model thatnot
says what other people say but trying to take information from the market and say, what is the market distribution of possible risk? it is not what hundred percent accurate. it is the distribution and they say this is the possibility for the direction. erik: so the market signal suggest that we are going to have what kind of selloff? moderate, more severe or a big one? but wenot a huge one, will have much more downside than the market had anticipated. erik: your specialty is options pricing and valuation. myron: i am known for that, yes. erik: yes, you are. my understanding is that options prices suggest that now is a good time to be buying risk protection. the problem is that lots was bought in the post crisis period
and never paid out. people are disinclined out to buy it. ison: the interesting issue ways to do things for it one way is to buy protection. another way is to self-insure in ways to reduce your risk or allocate risks dynamically. if you allocate risks dynamically, then what the market distributions tell everyone is that they are moving more into safety assets or more in the task assets like self-insurance. obviously, the option in the market protects against everything from what you are doing. the option market protects you of other counterparties. two things, it protects you against evolutionary shock and an earthquake. erik: i take it you agree to both? now is a time to move into safer assets.
if you choose to be in speculative assets, by protection? myron: that is right. erik: a lot of your research is dedicated to what smart money is doing. is there any truth to smart money? smart money looks pretty dumb. myron: smart money would have all the wealth. erik: it kind of feels like that is happening right now. that it isidea is only trying to use information about risk, and managing money -- think about it. in the short run, [indiscernible] your program, you are always talking about volatility. it is not about the longer time it is all volatility and we should be focusing on asset allocation while thinking about volatility.
if we think about volatility, it is a great way to think about risk management. the other thing about money management, if you allow volatility to fluctuate randomly, your compound return will be reduced area -- produced. betty: that was myron scholes with bloomberg's erik schatzker. top turning estimates in banks that promised to cut more costs. you are going to hear from more of our exclusive interview with frederick after the break. ♪
u.s. factory orders take marks for taking strengthen demand for ministry -- military hardware and machinery. inounds from nearly 2% drop february. u.s. trade deficit falling to the lowest in 16 months. it is plunging by the largest amount seven years ago. to 44ficit narrowed billion dollars in march. a drop of almost 14%. it would beat trade gaps since november 2014. the changes on the way for apple's streaming music service. apple music has received lukewarm reviews. people familiar with the matter say that the user interface will be changed to make it more intuitive and they plan to better integrate streaming and downloads. bloomberge latest business flash.
up fromre higher, profit -- up and a beat profit estimates. check out this chart on the bloomberg. 17%hows the banquet held by and jumping fixed income currencies and commodities revenue. exclusivelyea spoke to caroline earlier today in paris. eric: it was feared on the economy and in china and etc. i think our preference is pretty strong. the decrease in market revenue reduced it to 13%. that is a progressive leader communicating. droprticular, if we see a in equity, but on the other hand, they have read the revenue.
havee same time, we increasing finance revenue because more capital is at work, so i think the revenue line is pretty strong given the environment. remain in a pretty volatile environment in 2016, but our first quarter was better and i guess there might be no business before. we can expect [indiscernible] that will not present as to and havingrther commercial success. caroline: you are saying you may have additional provisions. could you give us more details? given the slight recovery in oil prices, is that improving your outfit for the business? the majority of this
comes from the oil and oil sector. at the same time, i can confirm that they cut the risk since last year, so i'm pretty confident at the end of the day. caroline: so what about provisions? federic: last year, we had a little bit more than 400, so we have arranged between 400 and 50 million -- and 500 million euros. caroline: the last concern was the target. the rle is at 7.1% for this quarter. are you looking at the 10% target in the short-term? federic: it is a counting standard, where all the taxes are boosted one quarter.
if you take one quarter of that and the taxes normalize and make the economic impact, we are at [indiscernible] i think it is for the resilient. what we said and of last year was with the environment, we expect with the russian business, we did not deliver what we expected. of course, [indiscernible] which will be at 11%. 11%.e beginning of europe, this year, we cannot guarantee that kind of return that we keep these projections in mind and going forward, we think we can achieve that by serving and following after this model. mark: frederic oudea in that exclusive interview in paris. betty: there is much more ahead
betty: by this time of the year, many of us are itching for a chance to get away. recommendations for some are and are -- r&r.\ i need some. we are talking about the remote getaway in finland. in new finland, so quite hard to get to. our writer came from texas and she had to take three planes, a ferry to get out to this
spectacular island with a hotel bit -- growth by a woman, not by hand, but she created the inn. women one of the richest in canada, she was an executive at the company and retired at 42 and made this her life work. it is all locally built and everything in their is sourced from the island and part of the reason she made it was to create industry for the island, which is basically a fishing island and overfished. travel resort and costs about $1200 a night and it is unbelievable. it is spectacular. mark: i am taking you all there when i win powerball. does the weekend at this hotel involve? emma: a lot of it would be sitting in your room because the views are spectacular, but it depends on the season. our writer went in the winter and she went on this thing
called a ski do and they went through the woods and then they did hiking and if you go during the summer, there is a lot more hiking, fishing, so you basically just go by what the weather tells you to do. betty: how long does it take to get there? emma: it depends on where you are coming from. betty: from new york? sure, shenot exactly was coming from texas, but you take a flight over there, then another flight to newfoundland and then a ferry. our writer have to stay overnight summer to get there the next way. it is far but worth it. mark: i cannot wait. e looking forward to it. -- looking forward to it. emma, thanks. you can read more on bloomberg. cbsng up, interview with executive les moonves. company'son the media
earnings and how they are boosting the bottom line. plus, u.k. prime minister david cameron will take questions in front of the liaison committee brexit. with europe down for the fourth consecutive session. i am sounding like a broken record, but that is the story today. that was the story yesterday. every industry group is falling on the europe stoxx 600 today and it is all about earnings from the likes of air france, bhp billiton, just to name a few. the european close is next. ♪
and you are watching the european close on "bloomberg markets." mark: we are going to take you from new york to london to california in the next half hour. cbs earnings results beat forecast inks to live events like the grammys and the super bowl. we are going to hear from leslie to what the future holds for the $25 billion corporation. in on shell is joining recording first quarter profits that beat first-quarter estimates. the majorst over for oil producer? the clock is ticking on the u.k. referendum vote. is going to push for the u.k. to stay in the eu. we are to bring you that live.